Opener: AKx-x-AQxxxx-K10x
Responder: x-Axxx-J-QJ9xxxx
Opener starts with 1D. The opponent overcalls 1S. Responder bids 2C.
Assuming that start, can the 6C slam be reliably bid? This was the question asked last night.
Well, even if it could be bid, is this a good contract? Any sequence approaching slam should send a red flag up that a trump lead is called for. If the person on lead has Ax or Axx in clubs, or a stiff club (to lead to partner's Ax), the opponents can play club-club ad the opening lead and trick two. Now, Declarer can win six clubs, three Aces, one King, and ONE heart ruff, for 11 tricks. Trick 12 seems to be on a diamond hook (which failed in practice), such that 6C should be set quite frequently.
My assessment, then, is this. Some hands cannot be reliably bid. Minor slam sequences are particularly tough, and they often call for some sort of "just guess" end point. This gets especially troubling when the opponents intervene.
Also, the practicality of not bypassing 3NT to explore a sickly minor suit slam often means the critical information is kept secret for too long and if often too difficult to have re-emerge.
So, even if this slam actually should make (because the person on lead does not have the club Ace and another club, or one small), not getting there is reasonable. If Responder does bypass 3NT, however, Opener should force this slam.
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