Getting Back to Par

Someone once said that the key difference between an expert and a beginner is not just in finding great plays but also in knowing how to get back to average after guessing wrong.  A case in point from last night's club game.

Dummy: AQ109x-Jxx-AQ10-xx
Declarer: Kx-AK98-xx-AKxxx

Declarer opened 1NT (15-17) and heard a 2D transfer overcall (hearts).  Partner bid 2H (transfer), and the contract ended in 4S.  LHO made the opening lead of a small heart.

If LHO has six heart, Declarer cannot guess wrong.  If LHO started with only Q10xxx, Declarer cannot guess wrong.  If Delcarer is missing the Queen or 10, there is a guess, but surely LHO did not have 10xxxx, right?

Declarer popped Jack, covered by the stiff Queen!  Bad luck!

Now, Declarer knows that he is down one trick to the field, because no one else is getting that heart call.  So, what to do?

First, find the spade Jack.  Because RHO has one heart and LHO has five, RHO has 12 cards that are not hearts to LHO having only 7 non-hearts.  Thus, the odds favor RHO having the spade Jack, and a 4-2 split is very possible.  So, Declarer went to dummy with a diamond finesse (working) and played the spade 10, winning.  Another spade then went to the King.

Now what?

There is an easy entry to dummy with the diamond, but then diamonds are wide open.  So, Declarer decided to play RHO for at least three clubs and tried to ruff out the clubs.  When the club Ace was played, LHO pitched a diamond!

What is going on here?  RHO had the feared four spades, plus only one heart.  Furthermore, RHO obviously started with all six remaining clubs.  That leaves RHO with only two diamonds.  Thus, only LHO (now known to have started with 2-5-6-0 pattern) can protect diamonds and hearts!

Declarer has already taken one diamond, one heart, two spades, and one club, for 5 tricks.  Of the remaining 8 cards, Declarer can win one more club, one more diamond, three more spades, and one more heart, for six tricks.  That leaves two for the opponents.  A typical two-suit squeeze (diamonds and hearts) works when the opponents have only one more trick to take (and you squeeze them out of that trick).  Thus, Declarer needs to "rectify the count" by losing that one trick early, while he still has control.

Declarer also needs to lose that trick in a way that does not snip communications or throw away a menace.  The easy route should be obvious.  Declarer cashed the second top club and then played a third club, ditching a heart to allow RHO to win the third club (to her shock).  RHO tried her best by returning a diamond (as she had no heart left to snip communications).  Declarer won this on dummy and pulled trumps.

The last two cards, then, were a small heart on dummy, plus a diamond, with Declarer holding the Ace and another heart.  LHO had to save the diamond King to beat dummy's diamond, because RHO was out.  LHO also needed to save two hearts, to protect his 10.  But, that's three cards, and he only gets to keep two.  In the end, he parted with the second heart, allowing Declarer to win two hearts at the end, for +480 and back to average.